In 2015, author, historian, and economist, George Mentz accurately predicted Donald Trump would win the election by sweeping the path what I called “FLOHCOPAIA”, which is Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Iowa. I was only wrong about one thing, my home state of Colorado.
However, Trump may be poised to even win Colorado and Minnesota because people are happy with the present trajectory of the economy and progress of the U.S. for working families.
Nobody could have predicted that Trump would win 30 states in a veritable landslide against Hillary Clinton in 2016. Trump’s win of Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016 was the biggest kick in the gut to the Democratic Party in 50 years, but can it happen again?
The Line and Las Vegas and the Odds – When Trump started his run for president, in 2015, he was priced at 500/1, or +50000 on betting sites. Thus, odds gave Trump a 0.2% chance of winning the presidency and a $100 bet would return $50,000 profit. In recent months, Trump’s odds have become better to -140. This means you would need to wager $140 to win $100. Today, they are giving the President a 62% chance of winning.
Everyone knows that if you win California, New York, and Florida, that you will probably take the Electoral College. The brutal truth is that while many progressives hate the Electoral College, you only need 11 states to win the presidency. I will leave it to you to figure out which ones those are.
The analysts are predicting a Trump win in 2020 by 60% to 70%.
Here are a few reasons why Trump can win the same states as he did in 2016 and potentially add Minnesota and Colorado.
- Ohio and Florida: In 2018, Republicans won the governorship of Ohio and Florida. This is important as turnout was down in 2018. However, in 2020, the suburban vote will turn out in full again to support mainstream-worker candidates such as Trump. If Democrats can present a better case for working families, they may gain support, but only time will tell.
- Employment Records: Job gains for all minorities and women are at historic highs.
- Interest Rates: While Trump has had great results with jobs and the stock market, the Federal Reserve raised rates 9 times since 2015, which means that 50% of our annual deficit is paying the interest on President Barack Obama’s $10 trillion in debt. However, the tax cuts and corporate tax cuts seem to have a “Compounding Effect” that nobody anticipated.
- The Deep Bench: The top candidates running against Trump may not have the energy, team, message, or bullhorn to compete with the president. Even a multi-billionaire is wasting their time and money unless they have a message that can compete with the last 3 years of success.
- Trump’s Peace and Prosperity: After many years of war and waste of spending offshore, working folks want Trump to continue to invest money in the health system, education, and infrastructure.
- Criminal Investigations of the Obama administration: Various people in past administrations may be investigated with indictments. If a few indictments are made, then the American public will know that the prior leadership was using dirty tactics and the intelligence community to derail Trump. Remember, 40 people were convicted under Nixon for knowing about one attempted wiretap or burglary.
- Promises Kept: The president has followed through with his promises and has greater than 90% support in his party.
- Diverse Support at a High: Trump’s support among workers and minorities including Hispanics and others has dramatically surpassed beyond Bush, Romney, and others. If Trump’s minority support holds up next year, they will render Trump unbeatable in November of 2020.
- Contingencies? As for the economy, the Federal Reserve, Treasury, and the president already have contingency plans in place to boost the economy and jobs by: reducing interest rates, taxes, and the cost of doing business.
- China and Free Trade – With regard to the trade negotiations with China? This issue can be totally settled at any time before the election making the president look like a hero to working folks in the U.S. Since workers were disenfranchised by NAFTA and other burdensome regulations which made business too costly in the U.S., working Democrats support the president in finding a better long term trade deal with China. Most Americans believe that China doesn’t buy anything from the USA anyway.
The 2020 Prediction – As of today, based on the existing economic and global variables, I predict that Trump wins 32 states or more to win the presidency again in 2020. That would be the 306 electoral votes Trump won in 2016, plus 9 from Colorado, and 10 from Minnesota. Thus, a predicted win by Trump by 325 electoral votes for Trump to his opponent’s 213 electoral votes. Trump could pick up New Mexico and Nevada also as those votes in these 2 states were very close in 2016.
George Mentz JD MBA CWM Chartered Wealth Manager ® is a licensed attorney, commissioner, and CEO of GAFM ® global education, which is an ISO 29990 Certified professional development company operating in over 50 nations. Mentz is an award-winning author and advisory board member to several companies around the world in education, charities, and FinTech organizations. Mentz is an Associate of St. George’s House Windsor Castle and Mentz serves on the Commission for Presidential Scholars in the United States. Mentz has promoted nationally-accredited business schools of the CHEA ACBSP and AACSB for a generation. Mentz as a General Counsel of the Financial Analyst Certification body has been seen in Yahoo Finance, the Wall Street Journal, The Week, The Hill, NBC, FOX, and others commenting on educational standards, accreditation, economics and wealth management.