Since its release on April 26, Avengers: Endgame has hurtle through each record in its way, save for outperforming Avatar’s all-time film industry of $2.78 billion.
Regardless of a gigantic four weeks at the box office that has left the Marvel Studios title with $2.62 billion in worldwide ticket sales, Endgame faces an uphill battle, as per industry specialists.
“It’s slowed down more than we all expected,” says Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at BoxOffice Media, who, after the film’s first weekend, had optimistically forecast Endgame crossing Avatar’s record in mid-June. He has since moved back his prediction to Labor Day, if it hits the record at all. Robbins notes that “no movie had opened on that level, globally.”
“Avatar was all about the marathon and now it’s about the sprint,” says Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at ComScore, noting that the films’ releases could not be more opposite.
While Avatar’s ascent to the top was progressive — going through more than 60 weeks in theaters and receiving a late summer re-release more than half-of-a-year after its December debut — Endgame completed a “lion’s share of its business in the first few weeks,” says Robbins.
It is likewise critical to take note of the development of the international film industry as a noteworthy difference between the 2009 and 2019 marketplaces. Avatar’s $204 million in Chinese ticket sales made up 7 percent of the movie’s global box office, while Endgame’s $608 million records for 23 percent of the movie’s global box office to date.
Endgame will likewise just face more competition in the box office pushing ahead. The release of Legendary’s Detective Pikachu and Lionsgate’s John Wick has impeded Endgame’s momentum at the international and domestic box offices, respectively. With the official begin to summer film season commencing this Memorial Day weekend with the release of another Disney title, Aladdin, the market will just become more crowded in the coming weekends.
“If it performs like it has been up to this point, there is about a $10 million to $20 million margin that falls half north and half south of Avatar,” says Robbins, adding, “But it would be surprising if Disney didn’t get it there somehow.”